A smaller idea: tax vacant land more, without a land value tax

A land value tax is a large structural change. A much smaller idea already fits inside Cook County's existing system, and it is not a land value tax — it leaves the whole tax structure alone and changes one number.

Cook County assesses vacant land at 10% of its market value — the same low rate as a house — while commercial property is assessed at 25%. So holding an empty lot is cheap, even on a busy commercial block. What if a vacant lot were assessed at 20% instead, partway toward the commercial rate — or at the full 25% commercial maximum? Moving a lot from 10% to 20% doubles its taxable value; moving it all the way to 25% multiplies it by two and a half.

There are two ways to do this. In the revenue-neutral version, every taxing district keeps its exact budget: when vacant land's value goes up the rate ticks down a little, so a typical vacant lot pays more while everyone else's bill drops by roughly 0.6%. In the other version, today's rates are left unchanged, so only vacant land pays more and the county simply collects about $125 million more (at 20%) or $188 million (at 25%). Either way, the point is to make sitting on an empty lot more expensive — a small, targeted nudge to build on it — without rebuilding the whole property tax.

What if vacant land in Cook County was taxed more like commercial property? →
Reassess vacant land from 10% to 20% or 25%, revenue-neutral or not, with each of the ~900 taxing districts re-striking its own rate. Who pays more, who pays less — by township and property type. Not a land value tax.

Other models / earlier work

Who pays more, who pays less under a land value tax

Revenue-neutral models of shifting the property tax from total value toward land, built from Cook County Assessor and Clerk data for tax year 2024. Two jurisdictions are covered: the City of Chicago's own levy (~830,000 parcels), and the entire Cook County property tax — every taxing body combined, ~1.77 million parcels. Built end-to-end with the LVTShift pipeline described in Progress & Poverty: “You can now vibe-code a land value tax.”

How a land value tax shift works

Today your property tax is based on your whole property — the land plus whatever is built on it. Build an apartment, renovate, or add a story and your assessed value rises, so your tax bill rises. In effect, the current system charges you more for improving your property.

A land value tax shift moves the tax off the building and onto the land underneath it. The government collects the exact same total as before — it is revenue-neutral — but it gets there by charging a high rate on land and a low or zero rate on buildings.

Because the total is fixed, the shift is really a redistribution: your bill rises or falls depending on how much of your property's value is land versus building. A vacant lot or surface parking lot is almost all land, so it pays a lot more. A tall, dense building is mostly building on a small footprint, so it pays less. A typical single-family home lands somewhere in between. The reports below show two versions — a 2.5:1 split-rate (land taxed 2.5 times the building rate, the most Illinois law allows) and a 100% building abatement (buildings taxed nothing, a pure land tax). The goal is to stop penalizing people for building and instead tax land value, which owners did not create — nudging owners to develop and discouraging holding land idle.

Chicago — the City of Chicago levy

Tax-impact report →
Both reforms (2.5:1 split-rate and 100% building abatement) with charts and category tables.
Explore by community area →
Interactive: pick any of Chicago's 77 community areas and toggle reforms.
South Side vs North Side →
Englewood + West Englewood compared with Lake View + Lincoln Park.
Methodology & limitations →
Full transparency audit: data, levy scope, exemptions, and what the model can and cannot say.
Full model notebook →
The canonical 2.5:1 notebook with all code and outputs.
Classification-preserved variant →
The split-rate run on assessed values, isolating the land-shift from classification removal.

Cook County — the full property tax

Extending the model to all ~1.77M parcels of Cook County (every taxing body's full property tax, tax year 2024). The defensible versions are per taxing body — each of ~900 school/library/park/municipal/county districts shifts its own levy to land within its own boundary, revenue-neutral per district, so every district keeps its funding.

Cook County — per-district, market-value base (C2-MV) →
Each taxing body shifts its own levy to land (market-value base). Results by township.
Cook County — per-district, classification-preserved (C2-CP) →
The pure land shift with Cook County's 10%/25% class ratios kept: housing down, land-heavy uses up.
Cook County — single county-wide rate (C1) →
Illustrative: one rate replacing all ~900 levies. Note this also pools tax base across the county, a far bigger change than a land tax.

What the Chicago model finds

Important caveat. The reform is modeled on market value, so it does two things at once: it shifts tax toward land and it unwinds Cook County's classification system (residential assessed at 10% of market vs. commercial at 25%). Much of the housing increase is the classification change, not the land shift — the classification-preserved variant isolates the two. The model also covers only the City's own levy (about 1.5 of a ~6.6 percentage-point composite bill) and runs on gross equalized value (homeowner/senior exemptions not applied). See the methodology & limitations.